We recently carried out an analysis taking social signals from
Facebook and Google+ and placing them under the microscope. The basic
message: Google+ is growing like crazy, but is in absolute terms still
worlds behind Facebook. The fact that Google+ percentage grew much
stronger than initially proposed is especially surprising. However, the
activity of users on the Google network is much more behind. The social
platform of founder
Mark Zuckerberg grew more moderately, but is already
incredibly large. Concerning both absolute numbers of social signals
and the activity of users, Facebook is seemingly indisputably ahead.
The first analysis on Facebook and Google+ has been revised and
repeated. In the center of the investigation, the shares as signals from
both networks were now measured exclusively. Based on these values, we
have calculated the percentage growth of Google+ and Facebook starting
from January 2012 to the current period of April 2013. The graph below
represents figures for the United States:
Again Google’s network shows a strong percentage of growth –
especially the striking increase from February to April. With Facebook
however, the curve only rises very slowly. If you look at the absolute
numbers to the right you can see why this is.
In the month of April 2013, the absolute number of Shares for
Facebook was fifteen times greater than that of Google PlusOnes. The
Google network is growing at the stage of small to small which therefore
is fast. Facebook is growing from its extremely large base to something
larger, and is therefore slower.
The remarkable thing is that Facebook is still growing. And that’s
why the blue giant appears to be unquestionably ahead of the market.
How can Google+ overtake Facebook?
With the support of new services like Google Glasses and the
mandatory creation of a Google+ account as part of Android Activation
for smartphones, the rise of Google+ accounts will only continue to
increase as new services become automatically linked to profiles. Not
long ago, Google announced that its Android operating system has over 900 million activations.
A large part of it is directly connected to a service and Google+
profile. Last year alone, this meant a growth of over 100% on the basis
of 400 million about a year ago.This interested us and we wanted to know precisely when this would happen. Therefore, we have developed a small growth forecast.
First, I want to emphasize that the following calculation – in stark
contrast to our other publications – is rather a small glimpse of what
the future might be, not a scientific claim. There are many factors that
can change how the networks evolve.
Ultimately, growth rates are constantly changing – which in itself is
always the variable ratio of the calculation basis related (condition:
before and after), i.e. the increasing network size as absolute value,
and the growth rate as a percentage size.
Now let’s take a look at the numbers. The basis for the calculation
are the percentage growth rates of the two networks of the last 6
months, referring to the rise of social signals or, more precisely, only
the shares.
Over this period, Facebook saw a monthly average growth of almost 10
percent, while Google+’s average grew by almost 19 percent per month
(again, we refer to U.S. figures). These values form the basis for our
forecast. So if this should remain so, we see the development of the two
networks for the coming years is as follows:
One thing that is clear in this chart is the incredibly rapid growth of
Google+. With a constant percentage growth, Google+ will overtake
Facebook in less than 3 years in
February 2016.